March Almanac: Ides of March Less of a Concern in Pre-Election Years By: Christopher Mistal & Jeffrey A. Hirsch | February 24, 2015 | Email | Print

March packs a rather busy docket. It is the end of the first quarter, which brings with it Triple Witching and an abundance of portfolio maneuvers from The Street. March Triple-Witching Weeks have been quite bullish in recent years. But the week after is the exact opposite, DJIA down 17 of the last 27 years—and frequently down sharply for an average drop of 0.44%. Notable gains during the week after for DJIA of 4.9% in 2000, 3.1% in 2007, 6.8% in 2009, and 3.1% in 2011 are the rare exceptions to this historically poor performing timeframe. 

Normally a decent performing market month, March performs even better in pre-election years (see Vital Statistics table below). In pre-election years March ranks: 4th best for DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ, Russell 1000 and Russell 2000 (January, April and December are better). Pre-election year March has been up 13 in a row for DJIA and 9 in a row for Russell 1000 & 2000. In fact, since inception in 1979, the Russell indices have a perfect, 9-for-9 winning record.

 

Saint Patrick’s Day is March’s sole recurring cultural event. Gains the day before Saint Patrick’s Day have proved to be greater than the day itself and the day after. Perhaps it’s the anticipation of the patron saint’s holiday that boosts the market and the distraction from the parade down Fifth Avenue that causes equity markets to languish. Or maybe it’s the fact that Saint Pat’s usually falls in historically bullish Triple-Witching Week. 

Whatever the case, since 1950, the S&P 500 posts an average gain of 0.22% on Saint Patrick’s Day (or the next trading day when it falls on a weekend), a gain of 0.11% the day after and the day before also averages a 0.22% advance. S&P 500 median values are 0.16% on the day before, 0.23% on Saint Patrick’s Day and 0.03% on the day after. In the nine years when St. Patrick’s Day falls on a Tuesday, like this year, since 1950, the day before (Monday) produced an average loss of 0.06%, while Tuesday advanced an average 0.77% and Wednesday 0.29%.