March Almanac, Vital Stats & Strategy Calendar: Usually a Bullish Start and a Bearish Ending By: Jeffrey A. Hirsch & Christopher Mistal | February 23, 2016 | Email | Print

 

March packs a rather busy docket. It is the end of the first quarter, which brings with it Triple Witching and an abundance of portfolio maneuvers from The Street. March Triple-Witching Weeks have been quite bullish in recent years. But the week after is the exact opposite, DJIA down 17 of the last 28 years—and frequently down sharply for an average drop of 0.3%. Notable gains during the week after for Dow of 4.9% in 2000, 3.1% in 2007, 6.8% in 2009, and 3.1% in 2011 are the rare exceptions to this historically poor performing timeframe.

 

Normally a decent performing market month, March is just average in election years with advances 62.5% of the time with a 0.6% average DJIA gain since 1952. S&P 500 has also advanced 62.5% of the time since 1952, but gains have been slightly better at 0.8%, on average. NASDAQ has not fared well in March in election years since 1972. Due to a 17.1% loss in 1980, March is NASDAQ’s second worst month of the election year. Similarly, March 1980’s steep losses adversely affect Russell 1000 and Russell 2000 indices, sending the month to second worst in election years.

 

 

Saint Patrick’s Day is March’s sole recurring cultural event. Saint Patrick’s Day occurs on the same day in March every year. There is no official stock market closing or bank holiday but the festivities do hit close to Wall Street when the days falls within the regular work week. Parades are held worldwide and one of the largest runs right up the center of Manhattan.

 

Gains the day before Saint Patrick’s Day have proved to be greater than the day itself and the day after. Perhaps it’s the anticipation of the patron saint’s holiday that boosts the market and the distraction from the parade down Fifth Avenue that causes equity markets to languish. Or maybe it’s the fact that Saint Pat’s usually falls in Triple-Witching Week. Whatever the case, since 1950, the S&P 500 posts an average gain of 0.21% on Saint Patrick’s Day, a gain of 0.0.13% the day after, but the day before averages a 0.24% advance.

 

Good Friday and Easter land in the month from time to time like this year. NASDAQ has been up for 15 straight years on the Thursday before Good Friday however, the day after Easer is the second worst post-holiday (page 88 STA2016).