July Almanac, Vital Stats & Calendar: Often Best Month of Third Quarter
By: Christopher Mistal & Jeffrey A. Hirsch
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June 28, 2016
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July may be the best performing month of the third quarter, but the mostly negative results in August and September make the comparison easy. Two “hot” Julys in 2009 and 2010 where DJIA and S&P 500 both gained greater than 6% and a strong performance in 2013 have boosted July’s average gains since 1950 to 1.2% and 1.0% respectively. Such strength inevitability stirs talk of a “summer rally”, but beware the hype, as it has historically been the weakest rally of all seasons (page 72, Stock Trader’s Almanac 2016).
 
July begins NASDAQ’s worst four months and is the third worst performing NASDAQ month since 1971, posting a 0.2% average gain. Dynamic trading often accompanies the first full month of summer as the beginning of the second half of the year brings an inflow of new funds. This creates a bullish beginning, a soft week after options expiration and strength towards the end.
 
July’s first trading day is the fourth best performing first trading day of all twelve months with DJIA gaining a cumulative 990.95 points since 1998. Over the past 21 years, DJIA’s first trading day of July has produced gains 81.0% of the time with an average gain of 0.50%. S&P 500 has advanced 85.7% of the time (average gain 0.46%). NASDAQ has been slightly weaker at 76.2% (0.27% average gain). No other day of the year exhibits this amount of across-the-board strength which makes a solid case for declaring the first trading day of July the most bullish day of the year over the past 21 years.
 
Trading on the day before and after the Independence Day holiday is often lackluster. Volume tends to decline on either side of the holiday as vacations begin early and finish late. Since 1980, DJIA, S&P 500, and NASDAQ have recorded net losses on the day after. Russell 2000 is negative on the day before and the day after.
 
[Election Year July Table]
 
Election year Julys rank in the bottom half of all election year months. DJIA: 0.3%, 6th worst; S&P 0.2% 6th worst; NASDAQ (since 1972): -1.3% 2nd worst; Russell 2000 (since 1980): -0.9% 3rd worst.
 
 
July (1950-2015)
  DJI SP500 NASDAQ Russell 1K Russell 2K
Rank 4 6 10 8 11
# Up 41 36 23 17 17
# Down 25 30 22 20 20
Average % 1.2   1.0   0.2   0.6   -0.5
4-Year Presidential Election Cycle Performance by %
Post-Election 2.2   2.2   3.4   3.3   3.1
Mid-Term 1.1 0.7 -2.2 -1.1 -4.5
Pre-Election 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.3
Election 0.3 0.2 -1.3 -0.3 -0.9
Best & Worst July by %
Best 1989 9.0 1989 8.8 1997 10.5 1989 8.2 1980 11.0
Worst 1969 -6.6 2002 -7.9 2002 -9.2 2002 -7.5 2002 -15.2
July Weeks by %
Best 7/17/09 7.3 7/17/09 7.0 7/17/09 7.4 7/17/09 7.0 7/17/09 8.0
Worst 7/19/02 -7.7 7/19/02 -8.0 7/28/00 -10.5 7/19/02 -7.4 7/2/10 -7.2
July Days by %
Best 7/24/02 6.4 7/24/02 5.7 7/29/02 5.8 7/24/02 5.6 7/29/02 4.9
Worst 7/19/02 -4.6 7/19/02 -3.8 7/28/00 -4.7 7/19/02 -3.6 7/23/02 -4.1
First Trading Day of Expiration Week: 1990-2015
#Up-#Down   17-9   16-10   17-9   15-11   14-12
Streak   U3   U3   U3   U3   U3
Avg %   0.07   -0.01   0.07   -0.03   -0.1
Options Expiration Day: 1990-2015
#Up-#Down   9-15   11-15   10-16   11-15   7-19
Streak   D1   U3   U2   U3   D1
Avg %   -0.5   -0.5   -0.6   -0.5   -0.7
Options Expiration Week: 1990-2015
#Up-#Down   16-10   13-13   12-14   13-13   12-14
Streak   U4   U4   U2   U4   U1
Avg %   0.3   -0.04   0.04   -0.07   -0.3
Week After Options Expiration: 1990-2015
#Up-#Down   13-13   12-14   13-13   13-13   10-16
Streak   D2   D1   D1   D1   D3
Avg %   -0.1   -0.2   -0.6   -0.2   -0.4
July 2016 Bullish Days: Data 1995-2015
  1, 13, 14, 20, 25 1, 6, 13, 14, 1, 7, 11, 13, 14 1, 13, 14, 20 1, 13, 25, 28
    20, 28 19, 20, 25, 28 25, 28  
July 2016 Bearish Days: Data 1995-2015
  5, 21, 29 5, 21 5, 21, 29 5, 21 21, 22