December Almanac: Holiday Cheer Usually Drives Market Higher in Midterm Years
By: Jeffrey A. Hirsch & Christopher Mistal
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November 29, 2018
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December is the number one S&P 500 month and the second best month on the Dow Jones Industrials since 1950, averaging gains of 1.6% and 1.7% respectively. It’s also the top Russell 2000 (1979) month and second best for NASDAQ (1971) and Russell 1000. Rarely does the market fall precipitously in December. When it does it is usually a turning point in the market—near a top or bottom. If the market has experienced fantastic gains leading up to December, stocks can pullback.
 
Trading in December is holiday inspired and fueled by a buying bias throughout the month. However, the first part of the month tends to be weaker as tax-loss selling and yearend portfolio restructuring begins. Regardless, December is laden with market seasonality and important events. 
 
Small caps tend to start to outperform larger caps near the middle of the month (early January Effect) and our “Free Lunch” strategy is served from the offerings of stocks making new 52-week lows on Triple-Witching Friday. An Almanac Investor Alert will be sent prior to the open on December 24 containing “Free Lunch” stock selections. The “Santa Claus Rally” begins on the open on Christmas Eve day and lasts until the second trading day of 2019. Average S&P 500 gains over this seven trading-day range since 1969 are a respectable 1.3%. 
 
This is the first indicator for the market in the New Year. Years when the Santa Claus Rally (SCR) has failed to materialize are often flat or down. The last six times SCR (the last five trading days of the year and the first two trading days of the New Year) has not occurred were followed by three flat years (1994, 2004 and 2015) and two nasty bear markets (2000 and 2008) and a mild bear that ended in February 2016. As Yale Hirsch’s now famous line states, “If Santa Claus should fail to call, bears may come to Broad and Wall.”
 
In the last seventeen midterm years, December’s rankings slip modestly to #3 S&P 500 (1.8%) and DJIA (1.5%) and #5 NASDAQ (0.6% since 1974). Small caps, measured by the Russell 2000, also perform well in midterm Decembers. Since 1982, the Russell 2000 has lost ground just twice in nine midterm years in December. The average small cap gain in all nine years is 0.7%. In 2010, Russell 2000 gained 7.8% in December.
 
Midterm December Stats Mini Table
 
December Triple Witching Week is more favorable to the S&P 500 with Monday up twelve of the last eighteen years while Triple-Witching Friday is up twenty-five of the last thirty-six years with an average 0.3% gain. The entire week has logged gains twenty-six times in the last thirty-four years. The week after December Triple Witching is the best of all weeks after Triple Witching for DJIA and is the only one with a clearly bullish bias, advancing in twenty-six of the last thirty-five years. However, three straight years of declines from 2006-2008 and 2012 have tempered its bullish bias. Small caps shine especially bright with a string of bullish days that runs from December 20 to 26.
 
Trading the day before and the day after Christmas is generally bullish across the board with the greatest gains coming from the day before (DJIA up eight of the last eleven). On the last trading day of the year, NASDAQ has been down in fifteen of the last eighteen years after having been up twenty-nine years in a row from 1971 to 1999. DJIA, S&P 500, and Russell 1000 have also been struggling recently and exhibit a bearish bias over the last twenty-one years. Russell 2000’s record very closely resembles NASDAQ, gains every year from 1979 to 1999 and only four advances since.
 
December (1950-2017)
  DJI SP500 NASDAQ Russell 1K Russell 2K
Rank 2 1 2 2 1
# Up 48 51 28 30 30
# Down 20 17 19 9 9
Average % 1.7   1.6   1.8   1.5   2.5
4-Year Presidential Election Cycle Performance by %
Post-Election 1.0   0.6   0.9   1.3   2.2
Mid-Term 1.5 1.8 0.6 1.1 1.7
Pre-Election 2.7 2.9 4.3 2.9 3.1
Election 1.4 1.2 1.4 0.8 3.0
Best & Worst December by %
Best 1991 9.5 1991 11.2 1999 22.0 1991 11.2 1999 11.2
Worst 2002 -6.2 2002 -6.0 2002 -9.7 2002 -5.8 2002 -5.7
December Weeks by %
Best 12/2/11 7.0 12/2/11 7.4 12/8/00 10.3 12/2/11 7.4 12/2/11 10.3
Worst 12/4/87 -7.5 12/6/74 -7.1 12/15/00 -9.1 12/4/87 -7.0 12/12/80 -6.5
December Days by %
Best 12/16/08 4.2 12/16/08 5.1 12/5/00 10.5 12/16/08 5.2 12/16/08 6.7
Worst 12/1/08 -7.7 12/1/08 -8.9 12/1/08 -9.0 12/1/08 -9.1 12/1/08 -11.9
First Trading Day of Expiration Week: 1990-2017
#Up-#Down   17-11   16-12   14-14   16-12   13-15
Streak   U3   U1   U1   U1   D4
Avg %   0.1   0.06   -0.03   0.03   -0.2
Options Expiration Day: 1990-2017
#Up-#Down   17-11   19-9   18-10   19-9   16-12
Streak   U1   U1   U1   U1   U1
Avg %   0.1   0.2   0.2   0.2   0.4
Options Expiration Week: 1990-2017
#Up-#Down   22-6   21-7   18-10   20-8   16-12
Streak   U2   U1   U1   U1   U1
Avg %   0.7   0.7   0.2   0.7   0.6
Week After Options Expiration: 1990-2017
#Up-#Down   20-8   18-10   18-10   18-10   21-7
Streak   U5   U5   U5   U5   U5
Avg %   0.8   0.6   0.8   0.7   1.0
December 2018 Bullish Days: Data 1997-2017
  5, 17, 21, 26 5, 11, 17, 18 5, 6, 11, 21, 26 5, 11, 17, 18, 21 10, 18, 20, 21
    21, 26   26,-28 24, 26
December 2018 Bearish Days: Data 1997-2017
  19, 31 31 19, 31 31 14, 31