Santa Claus Rally Results: January Indicator Trifecta 1 for 1
By: Jeffrey A. Hirsch & Christopher Mistal
January 04, 2022
As defined in the Stock Trader’s Almanac, the Santa Claus Rally (SCR) is the propensity for the S&P 500 to rally the last five trading days of December and the first two of January an average of 1.3% since 1950.
The lack of a rally can be a preliminary indicator of tough times to come. This was certainly the case in 2008 and 2000. A 4.0% decline in 2000 foreshadowed the bursting of the tech bubble and a 2.5% loss in 2008 preceded the second worst bear market in history.
After the best first day gain since 2000-2001, S&P 500 held its ground and finished the current seven-day trading span defined by the Santa Claus Rally with a 1.4% gain. Including this year, Santa has paid Wall Street a visit 58 times since 1950. Of the previous 57 occasions, January’s First Five Days (FFD) and the January Barometer (JB) were both up 31 times. When all three indicators were positive, the full year was positive 28 times (90.3% of the time) with an average gain of 17.5% in all years.
A positive SCR is encouraging, and further clarity will be gained when January’s First Five Days Early Warning System (page 16, STA 2022) gives its reading later this week and when the January Barometer (page 18, STA 2022) reports at month’s end. A positive First Five Days and January Barometer would certainly boost prospects for full-year 2022. The December Low Indicator (2022 STA, page 36) should also be watched with the line in the sand at the Dow’s December Closing Low of 34022.04 on 12/1/2021.
[S&P 500 January Early Indicator Trifecta — UP SCR Table]