NASDAQ Seasonal MACD Update: Rally Fizzles By: Christopher Mistal & Jeffrey A. Hirsch | June 23, 2023 | Email | Print

As of today’s close, the slower moving MACD “Sell” indicator applied to NASDAQ is negative. NASDAQ’s “Best Eight Months” has come to an end. At this time we are issuing our Seasonal MACD Sell signal for NASDAQ.

 

 

 

Sell Invesco QQQ (QQQ). 

 

Sell iShares Russell 2000 (IWM).

 

For tracking purposes, these positions will be closed out of the Tactical Switching Strategy ETF Portfolio using their respective average prices on Monday, June 26.

 

From our seasonal buy signal last fall, NASDAQ advanced 20.7% as of today’s close. QQQ, which tracks the NASDAQ 100, jumped an impressive 29.7%. Recent weakness appears to have been triggered by the Fed. They did pause at the last meeting, but also just stopped short of promising at least another two 0.25% rate increases. Given the data-driven nature of the Fed and the continued choppiness in economic reports, it would not be surprising to see the market slip into another choppy sideways trading range like what the market was doing before the current rally began.

 

Uncertainty is on the rise once again just as the historically weak summer months arrive. The risk of potentially more interest rate increases also dampens our summertime outlook for longer-dated bond ETFs. Existing positions in TLT, AGG and BND on are Hold. Cash, money market, and/or short-duration bond ETFs like SHV and SGOV are likely to be the least risky during the “Worst Months” this year. SHV and SGOV can be considered at current levels.