NASDAQ’s impressive run of four consecutive daily gains of more than 1% came to an end an end on August 5. While the streak is over, its significance remains. Since the NASDAQ's inception in 1971, this is only the 18th occurrence of four straight 1%+ daily advances, underscoring just how uncommon this type of sustained buying pressure has been.
History has generally rewarded these powerful momentum bursts. Across the previous 17 occurrences, the four-day rally averaged an 8.33% gain before ending. Following the streak, NASDAQ was higher one month later 70.6% of the time with an average gain of 3.78%. Three months later, the index gained an average of 9.48% and advanced in 82.4% of cases. Six- and twelve-month returns were even stronger, averaging 19.03% and 26.61%, respectively.
However, a closer look at the data reveals an important distinction. The first seven occurrences (1974–1991) were overwhelmingly bullish. Aside from one modest one-year loss following the January 1987 streak and a slight six-month decline after the December 1991 signal, every instance produced positive intermediate- and longer-term returns, reflecting the powerful secular bull market environment of that era.
The 10 occurrences since 1988 tell a more mixed story. While the average four-day advance actually increased to 8.67%, subsequent gains have been more muted. One-month returns averaged just 1.73%, three-month gains averaged 6.34%, six-month returns 12.60%, and one-year gains 21.91%. The percentage of positive outcomes also slipped to 50% after one month and 70% over three months through one year, as several signals occurred during challenging bear markets in 1998, 2001, 2011, and 2022.
The takeaway is that this relatively rare momentum signal continues to lean bullish, but today's market has been less forgiving than the earlier decades. Strong buying thrusts still tend to favor higher prices over the intermediate to longer term, but since 1988 the path to those gains has tended to be more volatile. NASDAQ’s 4-day surge higher to start August was impressive but it may not be enough to overcome typical midterm year weakness in August and September, especially if the Strait of Hormuz deal does not materialize and energy prices begin to rise again.
Stock Portfolio Updates
Over the past four weeks, through the close on August 5, the Almanac Investor Stock Portfolio slipped 0.1% lower, excluding dividends and any potential interest generated by the cash position, compared to a 3.2% gain by S&P 500 and a 2.1% increase by Russell 2000 over the same time. Small-cap positions were best, up 5.3% on average while Mid- and Large-cap positions retreated 1.4% and 0.9% respectively. Defensive positions in the Large-cap portfolio were performing reasonably well until the market surged higher at the start of August on news of another potential deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to shipping traffic. The rush back to “risk on” positions, did result in defensive positions retreating.
As of the close on August 5, the
Dividend Stock basket from June 11, 2026, was up an average of 6.1%. The top performing position,
Perrigo (PRGO), in the Small-cap section of the portfolio was up 24.6%. PRGO reported earnings that beat estimates yesterday, sending shares higher by over 20%. It did give a part of the gain back today, but it looks likely that analysts will be adjusting their outlooks for PRGO now that it has beaten them in three of the last four quarters.
PRGO is on Hold.
Kenvue (KVUE) entered today’s earnings report with improving momentum and reported that first-quarter diluted EPS rose to $0.25 from $0.17 year-over-year. Despite the improvement, earnings did fall short of estimates. The near-term outlook remains mixed, with consumer-health demand, tariffs, litigation, and execution risks weighing on organic growth. However, the pending Kimberly-Clark acquisition, valued at approximately $21.01 per share in cash and stock, could provide some support if completed in the second half of 2026. KVUE is on Hold.
Kraft Heinz (KHC) reported first-quarter 2026 adjusted EPS of $0.58, exceeding expectations, but organic net sales remained under pressure amid cautious consumer spending and competitive pricing. Management reaffirmed its full-year outlook, projecting organic sales declines of 1.5%–3.5% and continued profitability pressure. This cautious outlook is likely sufficient to keep the bar low for next quarter’s earnings. KHC is on Hold.
It has been nearly two months and Energizer Holdings (ENR) and Newell Brands (NWL) have not traded below their respective buy limits. Rather than give chase, we are cancelling trades in ENR and NWL.
Other dividend yielding positions from June 11, CPB, SJM, MKC, HRL, MO, and PEP are also on Hold. Should the broader market’s latest push higher lose steam, these positions could quickly return to favor as traders and investors look for some defensive, dividend paying positions.
StoneX Group (SNEX) completed its 3-2 split and began trading on a split-adjusted basis on July 20. As a result of the split, its Presented Price and Stop Loss price have been adjusted. SNEX took a hit today, but it appears to be profit taking as it reported quarterly earnings that easily surpassed estimates. SNEX is on Hold.
Utility sector stocks, AEP, D, DUK, ETR, EXC, NEE, and SO remain a mixed bag and are collectively weaker since last update. Excluding dividends, these utility stocks were down 2.6% on average as of August 5. ETR and D are the only two positive, up 1.7% and 9.1% respectively. Higher interest rates and inflation are headwinds to these utility stocks. Longer-term their outlooks do improve as demand for electricity continues to grow.
On July 29, Emcor Group (EME) closed below its stop loss price of $690.24. Per standard trading guidelines (located at the bottom of the portfolio table below), EME was closed out of the portfolio the following trading session at its average price of $790.19. After selling half the original position when EME first doubled, the total gain on EME was a solid 187.1%.
All other positions not previously mentioned in the portfolio are on Hold. Please note some stop losses have been updated to account for recent moves.
Disclosure note: Officers of Hirsch Holdings Inc. held positions in AROC, HWAIF, SMCI, and SNEX in personal accounts.