Historically it is not uncommon for the market to exhibit some first-half of December weakness. This was not exactly the situation this year. S&P 500, NASDAQ and Russell 2000 did decline modestly last week, but DJIA climbed 0.44% higher. And as of last Friday DJIA was up 3.8% in December, S&P 500 2.7%, NASDAQ 2.1% and Russell 2000 3.2%. The concern is absent first half weakness, the second half of December could be a disappointment. Looking over the last 21 years of data, it appears the first half of December does not necessarily make a difference. From the close on December’s options expiration day until the end of the year, DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ and Russell 2000 are all generally bullish. DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ post average gains of slightly more than 0.8% and advance more than 60% of the time. Russell 2000 is best, averaging a solid 1.82% gain, advancing 81% of the time (17 of 21).
[Market Performance Option Expiration to Yearend]