Please take a moment and register for our members’ only webinar, April 2026 Outlook & Update on Wednesday April 1, 2026, at 4:00 PM EDT here:

 

https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/6579671548938778972     

 

Please join us for an Almanac Investor Member’s Only discussion of recent market action with time for Q & A at the end. Jeff and Chris will cover their outlook for April 2026, review the Tactical Seasonal Switching Strategy ETF, Sector Rotation ETF, and Stock Portfolio holdings and trades. We will also share assessments of the Iran war, economy, the Fed, inflation, geopolitical events, gold, silver, copper, energy as well as relevant updates to seasonals now in play.

 

If you are unable to attend the live event, please still register. Within a day of completion, we will send out an email with links to access the recording and the slides to everyone that registers.

 

After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the webinar and a reminder message.

 

 

3/26/2026: Dow 45960.11 | S&P 6477.16 | NASDAQ 21408.08 | Russell 2K 2493.32 | NYSE 21843.98 | Value Line Arith 12187.78

 

Seasonal: Bullish. April is the 2nd best month for DJIA and S&P 500 (since 1950) and 4th best for NASDAQ (since 1971). DJIA and S&P 500 “Best Six Months” end in April. The Seasonal MACD Sell signal can trigger as early as April 1 this year. In midterm years April’s performance has been weaker ranking #7 for DJIA and S&P 500 and #9 NASDAQ. Average performance in midterm years ranges from -1.1% by NASDAQ to 0.4% by DJIA.

 

Fundamental: Fog of war. War with Iran has triggered a surge in energy prices which only compounds pre-existing inflation woes. Q1 GDP estimated by the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model currently stands at just 2.0%, down from earlier estimates just above 3%. Weekly jobless claims remain subdued, although ticking slightly higher to 210,000 as of today’s release (March 26). Unemployment rate remains reasonable stable at 4.4%. Corporate earnings forecasts broadly remain positive, but some businesses could be hit harder by higher energy costs than others. Overall, data has been softer. The longer the Iran war drags on, the greater the economic impact will likely become.

 

Technical: Pullback/Correction. From their respective all-time closing highs to their low closes on March 20 or 26, DJIA was down -9.2%, S&P 500, -7.2%, NASDAQ -10.6%, and Russell 2000 -10.3%. Using the widely accepted 10% decline as the threshold for a correction, NASDAQ and Russell 2000 have met the definition. DJIA and S&P 500 have not. Russell 2000 has the most encouraging chart as its 200-day moving average has held. DJIA, S&P 500, and NASDAQ have all closed below their respective 200-day moving averages. Key support levels to watch are DJIA 45,000, S&P 500 at 6200, and NASDAQ 20200. An across-the-board breakdown through key support levels would be the most bearish scenario.

 

Monetary: 3.50 – 3.75%. The Fed’s job has gotten much more difficult with the jump in energy prices. Based upon the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, the odds for an interest rate cut later this year have fallen to effectively zero and the odds of a rate increase are now rising. This could potentially be signaling a significant shift in Fed policy. Something the market is not likely to respond well to. If inflation metrics continue to climb, the Fed could be forced to raise interest rates. The market would not likely respond well to a shift back to tightening monetary policy.

 

Sentiment: Retreating. According to Investor’s Intelligence Advisors Sentiment survey Bullish advisors stand at 39.3%. Correction advisors are at 35.7% and Bearish advisors were 25.0% as of their March 25 release. Compared to last month, bullish sentiment has fallen substantially and is now at the lowest level since May 2025. The corresponding increases in correction and bearish advisors are approaching levels that have historically correlated with the end of past pullbacks/corrections. It would likely take new market lows or a test of most recent lows to push the bearish and correction advisors’ numbers higher and provide a clearer sentiment signal.

 

Over the past several weeks, the market has continued to grapple with heightened geopolitical tensions, elevated oil prices, and shifting economic dynamics. While indexes have retreated meaningfully from recent highs and made new lows today, the magnitude of the pullback remains relatively contained compared to prior geopolitical and oil shock periods. As we enter the final days of March, several technical, seasonal, and historical indicators converge.

 

The market finds itself at a seasonal crossroads: April is the end of the Best Six Months and the beginning of the Weak Spot of the 4-Year Cycle during midterm year Q2-Q3, but the new Trump-presidency annual cycle is also in play. The Iran conflict-induced volatility which triggered a rare March December Low Indicator (DLI) have knocked this rich market down. But our sense is that President Trump will do everything in his power to wrap this Iran operation up in the next several weeks, setting up another a potential spring low.

 

 

We have added the pattern of the five Trump presidency years — 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2025 —to our S&P Midterm Election Year Seasonal Pattern Chart below. President Trump seems to have a penchant for creating turbulence when he is in The White House early in the year, that has tended to trace out a double bottom in late March and early April, then a sustained rally into year-end. We saw it during the tariff-driven decline last year, and the current pattern is tracking that blueprint remarkably closely. 

 

Compared to the other midterm year seasonal patterns on this chart, 2026 market action so far could give you pause. What’s going on with Iran and oil prices is troubling. But perhaps there is something to this Trump-year cycle and it’s pulling all the usual midterm year weakness forward and concentrating it here in March. 

 

 

 

Both the S&P and the Dow breached their December lows during the Iran selloff, officially triggering the December Low Indicator (DLI). While the indicator appropriately calls for caution, the historical nuance matters: March DLI triggers are rare, and when combined with an up January Barometer—as we have this year—they’ve tended to result in shallower subsequent declines and better full-year outcomes than January or February triggers. In fact, the three previous March triggers averaged an additional drawdown of just –8.12%

 

In the chart below of the 30 trading days before and the 60 trading days after DJIA closed below its December closing low we have split the previous DJIA December low crossings into four groups along with 2026 through yesterday’s close (March 25) for comparison. The best performance was observed by the years that had the positive January Barometer. Years with greater than a 10% decline after the cross had the weakest performance. It appears the quicker DJIA recovers after crossing below its December low, the better its performance was. Even with today’s decline DJIA is above Friday’s low. Against that historical backdrop, current technical levels warrant close attention.

 

 

We have also updated the Before & After Crises chart and while today’s decline brings S&P 500 to a new crisis low, it is still only down 5.8% from the February 27 close before the conflict began and 7.2% from its all-time high on January 27. When analyzing and evaluating these seasonal charts and historical analogs the trend matters far more than magnitude or level. 

 

 

 

Looking at the three technical charts below of DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ are cause for concern though. DJIA is testing the 45,000–46,000 zone that represents the confluence of the December 2024 and January 2025 highs, and the October–November 2025 support lows. If the market fails to hold these levels the next major support level would be near 42,000, which lines up with the December 2024-January 2025 lows. At today’s close DJIA is down 6.2% from the start of the conflict and 9.2% from its all-time high.

 

S&P 500 is testing its support at 6500 and closed below it today. The next major support level we have highlighted on the chart is 6200 at last August’s low. However, S&P could find support above that in the 6350-6400 area. At today’s close S&P 500 is down 5.8% from the start of the conflict and 7.2% from its all-time high. 

 

NASDAQ support near its November closing low around 22,000 has been taken out this past week. We added blue-dotted lines highlighting some additional support in the 20500-21500 area, which NASDAQ dipped into today. Support at the December 2024 lows and February 2025 highs around 20,200 looms below there. At today’s close NASDAQ is down 5.6% from the start of the conflict and 10.7% from its all-time high.

 

 

 

 

Prepare for End of Best Six Months 

 

April is the last month of the Best Six Months for DJIA and S&P 500. As of today’s close, all four positions in the Tactical Switching Strategy portfolio are in the red. As a reminder, positions in the Tactical Switching Strategy portfolio are intended to be held until we issue corresponding Seasonal MACD Sell Signals on/after April 1 for DJIA and S&P 500 and on/after June 1 for NASDAQ and Russell 2000. For this reason, there are no stop losses associated with these positions. QQQ and IWM are a Buy at current levels up to their respective Buy Limits. DIA and SPY are on Hold. (Disclosure note: Officers of Hirsch Holdings Inc held positions in DIA, IWM, QQQ, and SPY in personal accounts.)

 

The criteria for issuing our Seasonal Best Six Months MACD Sell Signal is:

 

1. A new sell signal crossover using our 12-26-9 MACD indicator AND

2. The crossover must occur on or after the first trading day of April AND

3. DJIA and S&P 500 MACD indicators must all agree.

 

Continue to hold, “Best Months” positions. When all of the above criteria have been met, we will send a Special Email Alert.

 

Patience With Nervous Market. 

 

Contrary sentiment has not reached capitulation levels. Absent panic selling, the market still seems to be holding out for a swift resolution — one that would certainly be welcome. VIX remains in that nervous 20-30 range and there are still more bulls than bears in Investors Intelligence Advisors % readings, but the market’s patience with this conflict is wearing thin. This is probably not the bottom or end yet. If some sort of deal or cessation of hostilities is not reached in the coming weeks it may be a cruel summer for the market. But while the outlook in the media may sound grim and market volatility is elevated the trend of 2026 on our two before and after comparisons and the Trump-year seasonal cycle are encouraging. Honor the stops and stick to the system.

 

 

DJIA’s February all-time closing high above 50,000 is just a distant memory now and its monthly winning streak most likely will end at 10 months barring a strong rally during the final trading days of this month. As of the close on March 25, DJIA was down 5.2% in March. DJIA fell below its 50-day moving average on the last trading day of February and then broke below its 200-day moving average just after the Ides of March (1). Although support around the 200-day has fallen, support around 45,000 has held. This is encouraging in the near term.

 

Throughout DJIA’s March pullback, both the faster and slower moving MACD indicators continued to trend lower (2) until yesterday, March 25. Gains earlier this week by DJIA have turned the faster moving MACD “Buy” indicator positive. Additional gains are needed for the slower moving MACD to confirm. Such a confirmation would be an encouraging sign as signals below the zero line have generally been more reliable buy indications/confirmations. However, whether not or this positive signal holds will likely depend on the path of the Iran war.

 

 

February ended and March began with DJIA suffering its second Down Friday/Down Monday (DF/DM) occurrence (page 78 STA 2026) of 2026 (3). Historically DF/DM occurrences have frequently been infliction points for the market that have historically exhibited a bearish bias. This recent DF/DM has fulfilled that bearish tendency with three straight weekly DJIA declines following. Somewhat encouraging is traders and investors may be reluctant to hold long positions over the weekend, but they have been buying on Mondays. This would appear to suggest that their greatest concerns are not happening over the weekend.

 

Prior to the start of war with Iran, the market was already struggling with high valuations, private credit concerns and persistent inflation. Add on surging crude oil price and DJIA and S&P 500 (4) have declined in nine of the last twelve weeks while NASDAQ (5) has retreated in ten weeks. The last time the market suffered a similar streak of weekly declines was from April to early July 2022. The 2022 streak was followed by a strong bounce higher in July and the first half of August. A similar bounce is not out of the question, especially if a ceasefire and negotiations were to begin with Iran. Whether or not this happens remains to be seen.

 

Market breadth over the last four weeks has been heavily negative with Weekly Decliners solidly outnumbering Weekly Advancers (6). One potential positive development is the number of Weekly Decliners did fall last week (week ending March 20). This could suggest broad indiscriminate selling is in retreat and traders and investors may be beginning to be more selective. This could be any early sign of a market bottom, at least in the near term. Further improvement in the number of Weekly Advancers this week and beyond would be welcome confirmation.

 

New 52-week Highs and Lows are in line with expectations giving the market’s current state. After hitting a high of 653 in mid-February, New Highs briskly retreated while New Lows have nearly doubled (7). The jump in New Lows has been relatively orderly. The apparent absence of panic selling thus far would suggest that some optimism for a timely resolution to the Iran war still exists. A quick resolution would certainly be welcome.

 

Since briefly after the start of the Iran war, short-term and long-term Treasury bond yields have been trending modestly higher (8). The increase is likely a reflection of growing inflation concerns and additional federal spending on war further contributing to an already ballooning fiscal deficit and total federal debt. The modest increase in rates is already putting pressure on the fragile housing sector and the Fed. Neither of which are beneficial to the market.

 

 

 

 

Last chance to join me on the beach at The 2026 MoneyShow Masters Symposium Hollywood Florida which will run from April 9-11 at the exclusive Diplomat Beach Resort. Over three days at the oceanfront venue, you’ll learn about the greatest investing and trading opportunities in 2026 – from dozens of the nation’s leading financial experts.

 

Here are my two sessions at the Expo on Thursday, April 9, 2026:

 

Should you Sell in May in the Midterm Election Year 2026? 

 

Stock Panel: The NEW Leaders: A Case for Small Caps, Out-of-Favor Sectors, and “Forgotten” Stocks

 

For more details and to claim your pass to the 2026 MoneyShow Masters Symposium in Hollywood, Florida click here! https://hollywoodfloridamms.moneyshow.com/?scode=066768

 

Three weeks in and the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. Iran and its proxies have continued targeting vessels, U.S. military bases, Gulf energy infrastructure, northern Israel and U.S. positions in Iraq. The U.S. and Israel continue to conduct sustained large-scale airstrikes across Iran and Lebanon. 

 

That said, the worst of the oil price panic may be over. While WTI crude at ~$97 today is about 45% higher than the ~$67 it was before the war, price appears to have settled down into a range of $90-100 since the March 8 intraday spike to near $120. The panic spike has stalled. Oil has been grinding sideways rather than exploding higher, and futures margin requirements have been raised significantly, likely forcing out some of the most purely speculative money. That action in crude suggests the worst-case scenario is no longer viewed as the most likely. And even oil at $110 (or higher) for a short time is not likely to collapse the world economy overnight.

 

 

Since the December Low Indicator (DLI) triggered on March 12, the indexes have continued lower as we cautioned last week. Remember as we highlight on page 36 of the 2026 STA and in the February Outlook, when the market closed below its December Closing Low in the first quarter of the year, it dropped, on average, another 13.5% on the S&P 500 and 10.9% for DJIA.

 

Now that DJIA is below this important DLI level of support around 47,250 it is testing the 45,000–46,000 zone that represents the confluence of the December 2024 and January 2025 highs, and the October–November 2025 support lows. If the market fails to hold these levels the next major support level would be near 42,000, which lines up with the December 2024-January 2025 lows. On the five-year chart, this area also aligns with the trendline running up from the bottom of 2022. DJIA 42,000 would be a 16.3% correction from the all-time closing high of 50,188.14 on February 10, 2026

 

 

 

S&P 500 is also now testing support near the October-November 2025 lows around 6500. Below that is 6200 around the end-of-July/first day-of August four-day correction and the bottom of the early July 2025 consolidation. Below that is the 6000 area near the June 2025 gap higher. S&P 500 at 6000 is a 14% correction from its January 27, 2026 high of 6978.60. NASDAQ support near its November closing low around 22,000 is currently being tested today. Support at the December 2024 lows and February 2025 highs around 20,200 looms below there. NASDAQ 20,200 would be a 15.7% correction from its all-time high of 23,958.47 on October 29, 2025.

 

 

 

If the market has not completed this pullback/correction and the conflict shows no signs of cooling by end of April, the seasonal headwinds of the midterm Q2–Q3 weak spot could compound the technical risk and those lower support levels — 6,200 on the S&P 500 and 42,000 on the DJIA — come into play. Watch 45,000 DJIA and 6,500 S&P 500 as the nearest lines in the sand, and when the VIX pushes above 30–35 and Investors Intelligence Bearish % overtakes Bullish %, that's historically the setup for a turn — we’re not there yet, so remain cautious.

 

 

 

Jeff will be speaking at the 2026 MoneyShow Masters Symposium in Hollywood, Florida, April 9–11, and we’d love for you to join him. The event runs at the Diplomat Beach Resort right on the ocean — so if you’re looking for a reason to get down to the beach for spring break and talk markets, this is it.

 

Over three days you’ll hear from dozens of top financial analysts and portfolio managers covering the biggest investing and trading opportunities in 2026. There are also six MoneyMasters Courses on options, crypto, and more, plus evening networking events. It’s a serious conference in a great setting.

 

Here’s what Jeff will be presenting:

 

 

The old “Sell in May” rule is real — but it’s not the whole story, especially in a midterm year. Jeff’s talk will walk through what history actually shows about how markets behave when control of Congress is up for grabs, and why the second and third quarters of midterm years have historically been the weakest stretch of the entire 4-Year Presidential Cycle. The incumbent party’s policies come under fire, uncertainty rises, and money tends to sit on the sidelines.

 

But here’s the flip side: that weakness sets up one of the most reliable buying opportunities in market history — the midterm “sweet spot” that has produced some of the strongest 12-month returns on record. Jeff will show you exactly when to get defensive, when to get back in, and which sector ETFs and individual stocks he is watching as the best seasonal setups heading into late 2026 and beyond. Jeff will also go through his Best Six Months switching strategy in detail.

 

 

Jeff is also joining a panel with some sharp colleagues to make the case for the parts of the market that aren’t getting the headlines right now. They will look at small caps, beaten-down sectors like real estate and consumer staples, and stocks that have been left behind while everyone piled into Big Tech. There are real opportunities in these overlooked corners, and they will be specific about where they are looking for 2026–2027.

 

Full event details and registration are at the link below. Use Jeff’s speaker code 066768 when you sign up.

 

Hope to see you on the beach in April.

 

 

April is the final month of the “Best Six Months” for DJIA and the S&P 500. The window for our seasonal MACD sell signal opens on April 1, the first trading day of the month. From our Seasonal MACD Buy Signal on October 6, 2025, through the close on March 18, 2026, DJIA was off 1.0% and S&P 500 was down 1.7%. Performance this year has been hampered by AI-related jitters, private credit risk, geopolitical concerns, war with Iran, and surging energy. Although there is limited time remaining, DJIA and S&P 500 could still bounce back in the green before their “Best Months” end. 

 

 

As you can see in the accompanying chart of the recent 21-year market performance in April and midterm-election years since 1950, the month has been nearly perfect over the last 21 years with gains steadily building from the first trading day to the last with only the occasional and minor blip along the way. In midterm-election years, the market has generally been strong until around mid-April but noticeably weaker in the second half. This is when the “Weak Spot” (page 46 STA 2026) of the 4-year presidential election cycle has historically begun. 

 

April 1999 was the first month ever to gain 1000 DJIA points. However, from 2000 to 2005, “Tax” month was hit, declining in four of six years. From 2006 through 2021, April was up sixteen years in a row with an average gain of 2.9% to reclaim its position as the best DJIA month since 1950. DJIA’s streak of April gains ended in 2022’s bear market declining 4.9% that year, 5.0% in 2024, and 3.2% in 2025. Despite declining in three of the last four years, April is still the second-best month for DJIA and S&P 500 (since 1950) and fourth best for NASDAQ (since 1971).

 

The first trading day of April and the second quarter has enjoyed notable strength over the past 31 years, advancing 22 times with an average gain of 0.25% in all 31 years for S&P 500. However, six of the nine declines have occurred in the last thirteen years. The largest decline was in 2020 when S&P 500 declined 4.4% (114.09 points). Other declines were in 2001, 2002 and 2005. DJIA’s record on April’s first trading day is nearly as strong with 21 advances in 31 years. NASDAQ’s recent performance is slightly weaker than DJIA and S&P 500, but the day is still bullish for technology stocks in general with more advances than declines during the same period. April’s second trading day has also been notably strong over the past 21 years.

 

The last trading day of April has exhibited a bearish bias over the last 21 years. DJIA has declined 15 times with an average loss of 0.35% in all years. S&P 500 has declined 14 times, average loss of 0.46%. NASDAQ and Russell 2000 have been just as weak (based upon frequency of declines) as DJIA on the last trading day, but their respective average losses are 0.72% and 0.93%.

 

The first half of April used to outperform the second half, but since 1994 that has no longer been the case. The effect of April 15 Tax Deadline appears to be diminished with bullish days present throughout April. Traders and investors appear to be more focused on first quarter earnings and guidance throughout the entire month of April.

 

Typical midterm-election year’s woes have tempered April’s performance since 1950. April is DJIA’s and S&P 500’s seventh best month in midterm-election years, up 12 of the last 19. Russell 2000 ranks highest at fifth best in midterm-year Aprils. Sizable losses exceeding 4% on DJIA and S&P 500 occurred in 1962, 1970, 2002, and 2022. The longer the war with Iran persists, the higher the odds that April 2026 could also succumb to mid-term year weakness.

 

 

Monthly options expiration week frequently impacts the market positively in April and DJIA has the best track record since 1990, with an average gain of 1.05% for the week with just nine declines in 36 years. However, S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Russell 1000 have all declined in the last four years during the week of April’s monthly option expiration. The first trading day of expiration week and monthly expiration day have been mixed, but generally bullish with positive average gains being the majority. The week after has a softer long-term record but also still exhibits modest levels of bullishness.

 

Good Friday (as well as Passover and Easter) lands in April this year. Historically the longer-term track record of Good Friday (page 80 of STA 2026) is bullish with notable average gains by DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Russell 2000 on the trading day before. NASDAQ has advanced 21 of the last 25 days before Good Friday. Monday, the day after Easter, has had exactly the opposite record since 1980 and is in the running for the worst day after any holiday. Since 2004 the day after has improved modestly with S&P 500 up 13 of the last 22 but with an average loss of 0.04%.

 

 

 

The conflict in Iran has now brought oil and maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz to a near standstill. The situation remains fluid. Fresh attacks on shipping vessels and Iran’s new supreme leader vowing to keep the strait closed have pushed oil near $100/barrel and markets to 3-month lows, triggering the December Low Indicator on both the DJIA and S&P 500.

 

In the February Outlook and member’s webinar we brought your attention to “The December Low Indicator” which has been featured in the Stock Trader’s Almanac for years (STA 2026 page 36). Originated by Lucien Hooper, a Forbes columnist and Wall Street analyst back in the 1970s, the December Low Indicator is based on the Dow closing below its December Closing Low in the first quarter of the New Year. DJIA’s December closing low was 47289.33 on 12/1/2025.

 

The study we presented examined the implications for the market based on the S&P 500 closing below its December Closing Low of 6721.43 on 12/17/2025 with respect to our positive January Barometer reading this year. Years when the S&P 500’s December Low Indicator was breached and the January Barometer was down, were weaker years. When January Barometer was up and the December Low was crossed, the years were stronger.

 

As you can see on page 36 of the 2026 STA and in the February Outlook, when the market closed below its December Closing Low in the first quarter of the year, the market dropped, on average, another 13.5% on the S&P 500 and 10.9% for DJIA. Now that the December Low Indicator has been triggered on both DJIA and S&P 500, some caution is in order.

 

However, of the 36 December Low Indicator triggers on the S&P 500, this is only fourth to occur in March, and the sixth among the 39 DJIA triggers. So, we have broken out the S&P December Low Indicator (DLI) triggers by month in the tables below. It is not surprising that most of the DLI triggers in January and February were accompanied by a down January Barometer (JB). Whereas all four March DLI triggers came in years JB was positive.

 

January DLI triggers were followed by further declines of 12.92% on average with full-years up 14 of 24 with average gains of 1.30%. The eight February DLI triggers were the worst, averaging further drops of 17.26% and down 6 of 8 years for an average 8.13% full-year loss. The three previous March DLI triggers saw the mildest average decline of 8.12%, with one year up and two down, averaging a 3.70% full-year loss. 

 

 

Positive January Barometer – Year Higher 89.1% of the Time 

 

When our S&P 500 January Barometer is positive as it was this year, the full year is up 41 of 46 years or 89.1% of the time for an average gain of 16.95%, the next 11 months are up 87.0% of the time for an average gain of 12.24%. When it’s down, the year is up only 50% of the time with an average loss of -1.75% and the next 11 months are up 60% of the time with a paltry average gain of 2.07%.

 

While the current situation suggests the market is likely to go lower in the near term, the positive January Barometer and the fundamental and macro backdrop remain supportive. So, when the indexes and your spirits are down and the contrary sentiment indicators have reached extreme bearish levels, e.g. >40 VIX and Investors Intelligence Bearish % exceeds Bullish %, that’s probably the point at which the market will turn higher again.

 

In an effort to expand and provide additional insights into how the S&P 500 has performed during past war, geopolitical and energy crises, we have updated the crises table to include the current Iran war and a comparison to all time periods’ performance since 1930. As the market nears the 2-week point since the war began, S&P 500 is down 3% as of today’s close as it battles the surge in crude oil price. This is roughly in line with average performance for all crises in the table.

 

 

In this next chart we have plotted S&P 500 average performance before and after the start of all the crises included in the above table. Each month in the chart uses 21 trading days as this is the average number of trading days in a month. The gray dashed line represents the average of all rolling 7-month periods beginning in 1930 and serves as the baseline.

 

 

When presented in this manner, the S&P 500 generally hit its low around 13 to 15 trading days after the crisis began. If the current crisis follows a similar path, the market’s low could occur sometime next week. By the + 1 Month point in the chart, the most encouraging outcome would be for S&P 500 to be back above its pre-crisis close, its February 27 close at 6878.88.

 

 

Per last month’s update, all remaining Free Lunch stocks were closed out of the portfolio using their respective average prices on Friday February 13. That mid-February exit has proved rather timely as just one of the seven remaining positions is higher now, EOG Resources (EOG) and three have fallen below their respective prices from December 20. Overall, this Free Lunch basket was disappointing and produced just a 0.4% gain excluding any dividends or trading costs. However, compared to NASDAQ’s 3.3% loss over the same period (December 19, 2025, through February 13, 2026), the basket’s result did yield some outperformance.

 

 

Last week in the ETF Trades email Issue, strength in the Utilities sector historically beginning in March and lasting until around the beginning of October was presented. Expanding upon this historical seasonal strength we selected seven new stock trade ideas from the Utility sector for the Almanac Investor Stock Portfolio. The seven new stocks are highlighted in gray in the portfolio table below along with their respective buy limits and stop losses.

 

Utilities have generally been considered defensive and have a track record of performing during periods of market uncertainty and during the “Worst Months.” Utility stocks typically have respectable dividends, and yield was considered during the selection and screening process. Ownership, operation, and/or a connection to nuclear energy were also desired but not required to be selected. The names selected are likely familiar and that was another trait given consideration.

 

All seven of the new Utility sector stocks shaded in gray can be considered at or near current prices up to their respective buy limits. For tracking purposes, they will be added to the Almanac Investor Stock Portfolio using their average daily price on March 13 and will allocate a hypothetical $3000 from the cash position in the stock portfolio to each position.

 

 

Over the past four weeks, through the close on March 11, the Almanac Investor Stock Portfolio slipped 1.4% lower, excluding dividends and any potential interest generated by the cash position, compared to a 2.4% decline by S&P 500 and a 4.7% loss by Russell 2000 over the same time. Across the portfolio, small-, mid-, and large-cap positions all declined on average while the cash portion of the portfolio expanded. As a reminder, we are not targeting a cash allocation percentage and the current balance is just the result of closing out Free Lunch positions, stop losses being triggered, and profit taking.  

 

HealWell AI (HWAIF) remains on Hold. It has been a painful endeavor holding HWAIF but there may finally be some light at the end of the long, dark tunnel now that they have signed a multi-million-dollar software contract. Details are still limited but it does appear as though HWAIF has expanded it footprint in the U.S. We welcome the news and look forward to hearing additional details while awaiting their next earnings release on March 19.

 

Collegium Pharmaceutical (COLL) was stopped out on March 5 when it closed below its stop loss. Shares had been performing well until earnings were released on February 26. Revenues and earnings were up but below consensus estimates. And despite affirming guidance for 2026 COLL still sold off.

 

ICICI Bank ADR (IBN) was stopped out on March 11. Shares had been weak even before the Iran war began but the resultant surge in oil price has weighed heavily on Asian countries due to their higher reliance on energy imports.

 

Per last month’s Stock Portfolio update, Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL) and CBRE Group (CBRE) have been closed out of the portfolio. JLL and CBRE both closed below their respective stop losses on February 12 as fears of an AI industry disruption spilled over into real estate-related stocks. Since then, shares of JLL and CBRE have been mixed. JLL has rebounded modestly while CBRE has declined further. 

 

StoneX Group (SNEX) did close below its stop today, but we are not going to close the position. SNEX is on Hold. The selloff from the start of March appears overdone. Tokenized assets and digital asset lending are likely here to stay.

 

All positions in the portfolio are on Hold. Please note some stop losses have been updated to account for recent gains.

 

 

 

For those who were unable to attend the member’s only webinar on Wednesday, the slides and video recording are available here (or copy and paste in a new browser window: https://www.stocktradersalmanac.com/LandingPages/webinar-archive.aspx). The webinar kicked off with an in-depth review of how the market has responded to past war, geopolitical and energy crises. Since 1979, the market has generally proven resilient as long as the crisis did not spill over into the broader U.S. economy. Impacts of war and past energy crises also tended to be limited when the U.S. was on reasonably firm economic footing from the onset, which recent data has generally been supportive of.

 

Jeff also noted that war has, sadly, been common in past midterm election years (page 28 STA 2026). War has been a factor and has contributed to the “Weak Spot” of the 4-year presidential election cycle. However, that weakness has also set up the market for the “Sweet Spot” (page 46 STA 2026). This is why we are still sticking with our 2026 Annual Forecast Base Case Scenario for full-year market gains in the 8-12% range. Key levels to watch are December’s closing lows for DJIA and S&P 500 at 47289 and 6721 respectively. NASDAQ’s level to watch is it’s November closing low at 22078.

 

 

There are two sectors that begin their seasonally favorable periods in March: High-Tech and Utilities. As we detail in the Stock Trader’s Almanac 2026, on page 94 “Sector Seasonality”, we typically present the trade setups in advance of when the seasonality begins. This year we are going to focus on the Utilities sector as it has held up well during recent weakness and it also appears to be benefiting from AI data center demand. Utilities are generally considered a defensive sector and are often a respectable performer during the “Worst Months,” May through October.

 

In the following weekly bar chart of the Utility Sector Index (UTY), seasonal strength (lower pane, shaded in yellow) typically begins following an early or mid-March bottom and usually lasts through early October although the majority of the move can be completed by sometime in late May or early June. Recent volatile trading has impacted the seasonal pattern in the lower pane of the chart. Typically, the pattern is less choppy as the sector does not usually experience major price swings in a year. Looking at the upper pane, last year’s nearly textbook move resulted in UTY hitting its annual high in late October. Last year’s low was in early April as Liberation Day tariffs sparked a brisk sell-off. This year, UTY appears to have gotten off to an early start with a healthy move higher in February. 

 

 

With nearly $25 billion in assets and ample average daily trading volume, SPDR Utilities (XLU) is our top choice once again to consider holding during Utilities’ seasonally favorable period. It has a gross expense ratio of just 0.08% and a relatively attractive yield around 2.5%. Top five holdings include: NextEra Energy, Southern Co, Duke Energy, Constellation Energy, and American Electric Power.

 

XLU could be considered with a buy limit of $47.10. This price is slightly above today’s close (March 5) as it appears XLU is currently consolidating its February gains. Based upon its 25-year average return of 9.32% (excluding dividends and trading fees) during its favorable period mid-March to the beginning of October, set an auto-sell price at $61.79. If purchased an initial stop loss of $41.57 is suggested.

 

 

Our favorite ETF to trade Infotech’s seasonal strength from mid-March through the beginning of July is iShares DJ US Tech (IYW). Our existing position was still down 3.6% as of the close on March 4 but posted a gain today. With NASDAQ’s Best Months lasting through June, and tech shares showing improvement today, IYW can be considered near current levels up to a buy limit of $190.10. SPDR Technology (XLK) can also be considered at or near current levels up to a buy limit of $140.00.

 

 

Two sector seasonalities are scheduled to end during March. The first is a Computer Tech short trade. We passed on this trade setup earlier this year and do not have a corresponding position. The second sector is Biotech. Sell iShares Biotech (IBB) and SPDR S&P Biotech (XBI). As of the close on March 4, IBB and XBI were up an average of 18.7%. This is comfortably above the 11.2% average for the Biotech sector over the past 25 years. For tracking purposes, IBB and XBI will be closed out of the portfolio using their respective average prices on Friday March 6.

 

Of the two new trade ideas targeting Natural Gas presented last month, United States Natural Gas (UNG) was added to the portfolio on February 9 using its average price when it gapped below its buy limit of $13.20. UNG can still be considered at current levels. Thus far, natural gas price has not responded to potential supply disruptions due to war with Iran, but that could change quickly especially as the conflict persists and reserves are consumed.

 

First Trust Natural Gas (FCG), the other new trade from last month, has not been added to the portfolio yet. FCG does have exposure to crude oil and crude’s price was climbing in February as the U.S. was building up military assets in advance of war. With actual conflict commencing, crude has only surged higher. FCG can be considered at current levels up to a new buy limit of $29.00.

 

While on the subject of crude oil, the auto-sell price for SPDR Energy (XLE) has been increased to $63.67. For XLE we want to use the auto-sell price as a level to watch and potentially act at or nearby. If the auto-sell price is reached, consider taking profits on the position and/or implementing a tight trailing stop loss.

 

Per last month’s update, iShares Semiconductor (SOXX) was closed out of the portfolio on February 6 at $339.50 for an 18.5% gain. SOXX did trade higher, later in February, but as of today’s close it is back below the portfolio’s exit price.

 

All other positions not previously mentioned are on Hold. Please note, some stop losses have been updated to align with current prices.

 

 

 

Thus far the market has proven resilient. S&P 500 is still in one of its narrowest three-month trading ranges in years despite AI spending and disruption fears, growing private credit concerns, and war with Iran. S&P 500’s February 5, closing low is still holding and technology displayed some signs of life today with IYW and XLK posting modest gains.

 

As a reminder, positions in the Tactical Switching Strategy portfolio are intended to be held until we issue corresponding Seasonal MACD Sell Signals on or after April 1 for DJIA and S&P 500 and on or after June 1 for NASDAQ and Russell 2000. With DJIA and S&P 500 “Best Six Months” possibly ending in a month, DIA and SPY are on Hold. However, with two additional months for NASDAQ and Russell 2000, QQQ and IWM can still be considered on dips below their respective buy limits.

 

 

 

Considering the events that transpired over the weekend in the Mideast and the ongoing conflict with Iran we want to reach out and offer some perspective. Firstly, we send our sympathies to the families of the American servicepeople lost in battle and those injured as well as to the innocent bystanders in Iran, Israel and elsewhere harmed in this conflict. With that we want to be sure that we all take a measured approach to the markets in response to the conflict in Iran.

 

Last night as we were discussing the situation and evaluating the market reaction we noted around dinnertime in New York the DJIA futures were down about 500 points and West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) was about $72 per barrel. At this writing (about 12:30pm EST) WTI is about $70.50 per barrel and DJIA is down about 50 points. S&P 500, NASDAQ and Russell 2000 are all green. The VIX CBOE Volatility Index sits at 21 up 5.7% from Friday after hitting an intraday high today just over 25. 

 

It is still extremely early on in this conflict, and we have no idea how this will play out or end up, but if the situation was dire the stock market would be down dramatically and oil would be at least $10-$20 higher. That is not to say there is no disruption. There are reports that European gas prices are up 50% after Qatar shut the world's largest LNG (liquid natural gas) export plant. Meanwhile, natural gas futures here in The States are up less than 3%. 

 

It is rather remarkable that so much has been thrown at this market: Venezuela, SCOTUS tariff decision, AI disruption to software and banks and the S&P 500 is flat on the year and up fractionally now, today. This speaks volumes to a resilient economy and healthy sector rotation in a continuing bull market. The broad participation is illustrated by the improved market breadth readings we have been highlighting recently.

 

 

The Iran conflict has driven intense media attention over the past 48 hours. While the geopolitical backdrop is serious and rapidly developing, market behavior remains more measured than headlines suggest. Below is our data-driven view of what is happening — and what history tells us to expect. Nothing in the price action suggests a systemic crisis. If the Strait of Hormuz were fully blocked and markets anticipated a prolonged disruption, oil would likely be $90–100, or more, not $70–80.

 

 

 

In the accompanying table we compiled the relevant historical geopolitical events that had an impact on energy prices and/or sovereign boundaries. As you can see, the more drawn-out crises were accompanied by weaker markets. 

 

Arguably back in 2014 Putin stopped in Crimea due to plunging oil prices hurting his coffers. While the 2022 Russia incursion into Ukraine lasted throughout 2022 and arguably had some adverse effect on market prices, the economic backdrop was much weaker in 2022. The U.S. had just posted a negative Q1 GDP print. The economy was coming off the “punch-bowl high” of massive COVID stimulus — and that liquidity had started drying up. You could see the writing on the wall that inflation was about to surge. 

 

In other words, the macro foundation was fragile even before Russia invaded Ukraine. So, the market was already vulnerable when the geopolitical shock hit. 2022 was a structurally weak, inflation-heavy, liquidity-tightening environment — so the Ukraine invasion hit an already fragile market. In 2026, the economic base is stronger, energy markets are more resilient, and the shock hasn’t broken anything fundamental.

 

We have also added the Gaza War that began on October 7 to the table. This was arguably the start of the chain of events leading to today’s situation. It marked the beginning of the broader Middle East conflict over the past two and a half years. The Gaza War set off a chain reaction that ultimately led into the broader regional instability we are now seeing with Iran. On October 7, 2023, the S&P was already declining from its August 1 peak. S&P bottomed out three weeks later on October 27, 2023, at 4117.37, suffering a 10% correction. S&P was 32% higher 12 months later. 

 

Both Ukraine and Gaza are still ongoing, but their initial impacts to global equity and energy markets have waned. 

 

 

This is a serious geopolitical moment, and we continue to hope for safety for civilians and service members across the region. But from an investment standpoint, today’s moves fit squarely within the historical norms of geopolitical shocks and energy crises.

 

Bottom line: This is not a time to panic. Volatility was expected — and has been contained. So far, nothing in the market suggests this is the beginning of a major bear market or a replay of past energy crises. We continue to advise ignoring the noise. Stay disciplined and data-driven. Remain patient — history overwhelmingly shows markets recover quickly from these events unless they expand dramatically. We will update you again as clarity improves.

 

 

If you have not already done so, please take a moment and register for our member’s only webinar, March 2026 Outlook & Update on Wednesday, March 4, 2026, at 4:00 PM EST here:

 

https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/1843979309980870236  

 

Please join us for an Almanac Investor Member’s Only discussion of recent market action with time for Q & A at the end. Jeff and Chris will cover their outlook for March 2026, review the Tactical Seasonal Switching Strategy ETF, Sector Rotation ETF, and Stock Portfolio holdings and trades. They will also share assessments of the Iran conflict, economy, the Fed, inflation, geopolitical events as well as relevant updates to seasonals now in play.

 

If you are unable to attend the live event, please still register. Within a day of completion, we will send out an email with links to access the recording and the slides to everyone that registers.

 

After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the webinar and a reminder message.

 

If you have previously registered, please kindly disregard this reminder.